Analisis Kecocokan Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) dalam Prediksi Penyebaran COVID-19 (Studi Kasus: Kabupaten Bone, Sulawesi Selatan)
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Pandemi COVID-19 yang telah menimpa dunia sejak akhir tahun 2019 memberikan pelajaran berharga mengenai urgensi kesiapsiagaan dan respons yang cepat dalam menanggapi wabah penyakit menular. Meskipun saat ini pandemi COVID-19 telah mereda dan situasinya mulai kembali normal, pengalaman dalam beberapa tahun terakhir menegaskan perlunya pengembangan metode prediksi yang dapat diandalkan untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan wabah di masa depan. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis pola penyebaran COVID-19 di Kabupaten Bone, menerapkan model ARIMA untuk memprediksi jumlah kasus COVID-19 di masa depan, serta mengevaluasi kecocokan dan akurasi model ARIMA dengan data aktual. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode ARIMA memiliki keterbatasan dalam menangani pola nonlinier.
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